Revenue for full year 2023 is expected to range between EUR 14.0bn and 15.5bn including Service revenue, which is expected to grow min. 5 percent. Vestas expects to achieve an EBIT margin before special items of (2)-3 percent with a Service EBIT margin of approx. 22 percent. Total investments* are expected to amount to approx. EUR 1bn in 2023. It should be emphasised that, similar to the preceding years, there is greater uncertainty than usual around forecasts related to execution in 2023, and the outlook seeks to include the current situation and challenges.

The outlook for 2023 includes the impact of the sale of Vestas’ converter factories announced on 10 August 2022 with an expected impact on EBIT before special items of approx. EUR 150m.

Vestas’ Development business continues to grow and to reflect the business area’s increasing financial and strategic importance, income related to sale of Development projects from joint ventures and associates is included as part of normal operations from 1 January 2023. The impact on EBIT before special items from this change is expected to reach a lower double-digit million EUR amount in 2023.

It should be emphasised that, similar to the preceding years, there is greater uncertainty than usual around forecasts related to execution in 2023, and the outlook seeks to include the current situation and challenges.

In relation to forecasts on financials from Vestas in general, it should be noted that Vestas’ accounting policies only allow the recognition of revenue when the control has passed to the customer, either at a point in time or over time. Disruptions in production and challenges in relation to shipment of wind turbines and installation hereof, for example bad weather, lack of grid connections, and similar matters, may thus cause delays that could affect Vestas’ financial results for 2023. Further, movements in exchange rates from current levels may also impact the same results.

Outlook 2023

_{^*) Excl. acquisitions of subsidiaries, joint ventures, associates, and financial investments.}

Long-term financial ambitions

Wind power has outcompeted fossil fuel alternatives in most parts of the world, and the prospects for the coming years are promising, with wind power’s increasingly central role as critical infrastructure. Consequently, forecasts indicate average annual growth in total wind power capacity of 9 percent towards 2030.^*)

Onshore
The demand for onshore wind power globally is expected to decline in 2023. But from 2024, a new phase of growth is expected driven by new increased ambitions for renewable energy, increased electrification, and corporate ambitions and activities. Adding to that, Vestas expects to see increasing contributions from its Development activities. On this background, Vestas maintains its long-term ambitions to grow faster than the market and be market leader in revenue within Onshore wind.

Offshore
The projections for the offshore business continue to build, and the long-term potential for the market remains very attractive. Based on the order backlog, Vestas expects to see a decline in activity towards 2025, while necessitating to invest heavily both in the organisation, supply chain, and technology. By 2025, upon the steep increase in annual offshore installations and Vestas’ new platform gaining traction in the market, Vestas aims to be a leading player in offshore wind power.

Based on these assumptions, Vestas has an ambition to achieve revenue in the Offshore business area of EUR +3bn by 2025, with an EBIT margin on par with the Onshore business.

Service
The wind power service market is expected to grow at a high single-digit rate, and Vestas maintains its ambitions for the long term for the Service revenue to grow faster than the market. In the longer term, the Service EBIT margin is expected at a level of around 25 percent, taking into account the integration of the Offshore business, which currently generates lower margins than Onshore.

General ambitions
Our industry needs structural change to increase profitability, especially within the wind turbine segment. The structural changes primarily entail strengthening the commercial discipline in customer dialogues, lowering the frequency of new technology introductions as well as maturing the assessment of risk.

In 2022, the gap between our financial results and our long-term financial ambitions increased, but the year underlined that Vestas is on the right strategic path to improve the industry structurally and build the commercial and operational maturity to achieve our financial ambitions. In that context, a 10 percent EBIT margin in 2025 remains realistic, although external headwinds from a challenging business environment continues to cloud near-term visibility and create uncertainty.

^{*) The forecast does not include China. Source: Wood Mackenzie: Global wind power market outlook update, Q4 2021. November 2021.} 

Long-term financial ambitions