Financial outlook for 2022

Revenue for full year 2022 is expected to range between EUR 14.5bn and 16.0bn, including Service revenue which is expected to grow min. 10 percent. Furthermore, Vestas expects to achieve an EBIT margin before special items of (5)-0 percent with a Service EBIT margin before special items of approx. 23 percent.

Total investments*) are expected to amount to approx.EUR 1,000m in 2022.

 

It should be emphasised that there is greater uncertainty than usual around forecasts related to execution in  2022, and the outlook seeks to take into account the current situation and constraints. Vestas continues to focus on its priorities for the year, which will enable delivering on the company’s commitments.

In relation to forecasts on financials from Vestas in general, it should be noted that Vestas’ accounting policies only allow the recognition of revenue when the control has passed to the customer, either at a point in time or over time. Disruptions in production and challenges in relation to shipment of wind turbines and installation hereof, for example bad weather, lack of grid connections, and similar matters, may thus cause delays that could affect Vestas’ financial results for 2022. Further, movements in exchange rates from current levels may also impact the same results.

Outlook 2022**)

Revenue (bnEUR)

14.5-16.0

EBIT margin (%) before special items

(5)-0

Total investments*) (mEUR)

approx. 1,000

*) Excl. acquisitions of subsidiaries, joint ventures, associates, and financial investments.
**) Updated on 1 May 2022

 

Long-term financial ambitions

Wind power has outcompeted fossil fuel alternatives in most parts of the world, volumes in the global wind turbine market are good, and the prospects for the coming years promising, with wind power’s expected central role in the electrification of societies, industries and mobility systems and forecasts of average annual growth in total wind power capacity of 9 percent towards 2030.*)

At the same time, the wind power industry has seen consolidation, giving way for a more stable competitive environment. The profitability, however, is not at a satisfactory level, and hence this needs to be a focus area for OEMs in the coming years. Severe supply chain instability and cost inflation has only made this more important.

Onshore
The demand for onshore wind power globally is expected to remain relatively stable at the current high level the next couple of years. After that, a new phase of growth is expected, driven by new policies, increased electrification, and corporate ambitions and activities. Adding to that, Vestas expects to see increasing contributions from its development activities, as well as growing capabilities within the fast-developing market for Power-to-X and hybrid solutions. On this background, Vestas maintains its long-term ambition for the onshore wind power segment to grow faster than the market and be market leader in revenue.

Offshore
The projections for the offshore market suggest a development in three phases for Vestas’ acquired offshore business. Based on the order backlog, Vestas will see a good activity level in the coming year. Following that, the company expects to see a decline in activity

 

 

 

 towards 2025, while necessitating to invest heavily both in the organisation, supply chain, and technology. By 2025, upon the steep increase in annual offshore installations and Vestas' new platform gaining traction in the market, Vestas aims to be a leading player in offshore wind power. Based on these assumptions, Vestas has an ambition to achieve revenue in the offshore business area of EUR +3bn by 2025, with an EBIT margin before special items on par with the Group's overall margin. 

Service
The wind power service market is expected to grow at high single digit rate, and Vestas maintains its ambitions for the long-term for the Service revenue to grow faster than the market. The Service EBIT margin is expected at a level of around 25 percent in the coming years, taking into account the integration of the offshore business, which currently generates lower margins than onshore.

General ambitions 
Despite supply chain instability and a high degree of cost inflation, causing volatility in the demand for wind power, Vestas maintains its ambition on an overall level to grow faster than the market and be market leader in revenue. The company also remains optimistic about reaching a 10 percent EBIT margin before special items. Based on the current market conditions and projections, we now envision this to be achieved by 2025. The introduction of our new offshore turbine platform will impact free cash flow, but Vestas nevertheless expects to generate positive cash flow and to achieve a long-term ROCE of minimum 20 percent over the cycle.

 

*) Source: Wood Mackenzie: Market Outlook Update Q4 2021. November 2021.

Long-term financial ambitions

Revenue

Grow faster than the market and be market leader in revenue

EBIT margin before special items

At least 10 percent by 2025

Free cash flow

Positive each year

ROCE

Minimum 20 percent over the cycle

Disclaimer and cautionary statement
This site contains forward-looking statements concerning Vestas’ financial condition, results of operations and business. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning Vestas’ potential exposure to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections, and assumptions. A number of factors that affect Vestas’ future operations and could cause Vestas’ results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this document, include (without limitation): (a) changes in demand for Vestas' products; (b) currency and interest rate fluctuations; (c) loss of market share and industry competition; (d) environmental and physical risks, including adverse weather conditions; (e) legislative, fiscal, and regulatory developments, including changes in tax or accounting policies; (f) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (g) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, and delays or advancements in the approval of projects; (h) ability to enforce patents; (i) product development risks; (j) cost of commodities; (k) customer credit risks; (l) supply of components; and (m) customer created delays affecting product installation, grid connections and other revenue-recognition factors. All forward-looking statements contained in this document are expressly qualified by the cautionary statements contained or referenced to in this statement. Undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Vestas’ annual report for the year ended 31 December 2021 (available at vestas.com/en/investor) and these factors also should be considered. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this document. Vestas does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information or future events other than as required by Danish law. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained at the website.