Wind energy remains key to an affordable, secure, and sustainable energy system, and although ongoing geopolitical and trade volatility is expected to cause uncertainty, the execution of our record-high order backlog is expected to drive increased revenue in 2025. Despite a step-up in depreciations and amortisations related to our V236-15.0 MW^TM platform, we expect profitability to increase in 2025 through stable raw material and transport costs as well as the completion of low margin legacy projects in 2024. 

Current tariff levels create notable challenges to the execution of the backlog, especially in the USA. It is expected that mitigating actions will result in compensation and ultimately lead to higher off-take prices of electricity in the USA. We assess the financial impact can be addressed within our current outlook. 

Revenue is expected to range between EUR 18-20bn, with an EBIT margin before special items of 4-7 percent. Total investments¹ are expected to amount to approx. EUR 1.2bn in 2025.

The Service segment is expected to generate EBIT before special items in 2025 of around EUR 700m.

The above expectations are based on the assumption that the global geopolitical environment will not significantly change business conditions for Vestas during 2025, including energy or supply chain disruptions, changes to the regulatory environment, or other external conditions, such as bad weather, exchange rates, lack of grid connections and similar. In relation to forecasts on financials from Vestas in general, it should be noted that Vestas’ accounting policies only allow the recognition of revenue when the control has passed to the customer, either at a point in time or over time. 

Outlook 2025

^{1) Total cash flows from the purchase of intangible assets and property, plant, and equipment, net of proceeds from the sale of intangible assets and property, plant, and equipment.} 

Wind power has outcompeted fossil fuel alternatives in most parts of the world, and the coming years are promising, with wind power’s increasingly central role as critical infrastructure. Consequently, Vestas’ addressable market is expected to grow significantly in the years ahead. More information about the market outlook can be found in the Annual Report 2024 on pages 17-18 and 29.

Onshore
The demand for onshore wind power globally (ex. China) is expected to grow by 7-9 percent annually towards 2030¹ driven by new in - creased ambitions for renewable energy, increased electrification, and wind as an independent cost-effective source of electricity. On this background, Vestas maintains its long-term ambitions to grow faster than the market and be a visible market leader in Onshore wind.

Offshore
Offshore wind power is likely to form an important part of the future energy system. Despite the recent years of turmoil, the prospects for both demand and financial return remain attractive, with offshore wind expected to grow by 20-25 percent per year until 2030^.1 As we ramp up serial manufacturing of the V236-15.0 MW™ platform and deliver the first projects in 2025 and 2026, it is expected that Offshore will be dilutive to the Power Solutions EBIT margin. It remains our ambition in the long term to achieve an EBIT margin on par with Onshore.

Service
The global market value for service solutions (ex. China) is expected to grow by 8-10 percent per year until 2030¹ and Vestas aims  to remain a global leader in wind power service. We maintain our ambitions in the long term for Service revenue to grow faster than the market, and to achieve an EBIT margin in Service at a level of  25 percent. In the mid term, however, revenue growth and margin will likely be lower, as we execute the recovery plan. 

General ambitions
Our industry is going through structural change to increase profitability. The structural changes primarily entail keeping the commercial discipline in customer dialogues, working closer across the industry supply chain, and lowering the frequency of new technology introductions as well as maturing the assessment of risk.

In 2024, Vestas managed to take a significant step to get ‘back on track’ as our commercial and operational discipline is paying off.  The year underlined that Vestas is on the right strategic path to improve the industry structurally and continue to build the commercial and operational maturity to achieve our financial ambitions. In that context, a 10 percent EBIT margin remains achievable in the mid-term, and Vestas is committed to deliver on this trajectory step by step.

^{*) Market forecasts adapted from Wood Mackenzie: Global wind power market outlook update: Q4 2024. December 2024.}

Long-term financial ambitions