In 2024, continued geopolitical volatility is expected to cause uncertainty. Nonetheless, we expect a combination of higher installations and increased pricing to drive growth in revenue. Our profitability should also continue to improve gradually but will still be held back by execution and completion of low-margin projects from the backlog.

Revenue is expected to range between EUR 16bn and 18bn, including Service revenue. Vestas expects to achieve an EBIT margin before special items of 4-6 percent, and total investments¹ are expected to amount to approx. EUR 1.2bn in 2024.

The Service segment is expected to generate EBIT before special items in 2024 in the range of EUR 800m to 880m.

In relation to forecasts on financials from Vestas in general, it should be noted that Vestas’ accounting policies only allow the recognition of revenue when the control has passed to the customer, either at a point in time or over time. Disruptions in production and challenges in relation to shipment of wind turbines and installation hereof, for example bad weather, lack of grid connections, and similar matters, may cause delays that could affect Vestas’ financial results for 2024. Further, the full-year results may also be impacted by movements in exchange rates from current levels.

^{Outlook 2024}

^*)  Excl. acquisitions of subsidiaries, joint ventures, associates, and financial investments.

Wind power has outcompeted fossil fuel alternatives in most parts of the world, and the prospects for the coming years are promising, with wind power’s increasingly central role as critical infrastructure.  Consequently, Vestas’ addressable market is expected to grow  significantly in the years ahead.

Onshore
The demand for onshore wind power globally is expected to grow by 7-9 percent per year until 2030^*) driven by new increased ambitions for renewable energy, increased electrification, and wind as an independent cost-effective source of electricity. On this background, Vestas maintains its long-term ambitions to grow faster than the market and be a visible market leader in Onshore wind.

Offshore
In 2023, a changing and dynamic reality became evident, with increasing costs, rising interest rates, and government offtake agreements that were disconnected from reality. These conditions led to project delays or renegotiations for our customers and the long-term market growth has been adjusted to the new reality, with offshore wind now expected to grow by 20-25 percent per year until 2030.^*)  Based on these assumptions, Vestas' revised ambition is to achieve revenue in Offshore of EUR +2bn by 2025, and when the volume in Offshore has reached scale, we expect to achieve an EBIT margin on par with Onshore.

Service
The global market value for service solutions is expected to grow by 8-10 percent per year until 2030*⁾ and Vestas expects to remain a global leader in wind power service. We maintain our ambitions for the long term for revenue in Service to grow faster than the market. In the longer term, the Service EBIT margin is expected at a level of around 25 percent, taking into account the integration of the Offshore business, which currently generates lower margins than Onshore.

General ambitions
Our industry needs structural change to increase profitability, especially within the wind turbine segment. The structural changes primarily entail strengthening the commercial discipline in customer dialogues, working closer across the industry supply chain, and lowering the frequency of new technology introductions as well as maturing the assessment of risk. In 2023, Vestas managed to get ‘back in black’ as our commercial and operational discipline is paying off. The year underlined that Vestas is on the right strategic path to improve the industry structurally and continue to build the commercial and operational maturity to achieve our financial ambitions. In that context, a 10 percent EBIT margin remains achievable in the mid-term.

^{*) Market forecasts adapted from Wood Mackenzie: Global wind power market outlook update: Q4 2023. December 2023.}

Long-term financial ambitions